In the 21st century, data has emerged as a strategic asset that fuels innovation, drives productivity, and underpins global economic expansion. Just as oil reshaped societies in the last century, information and data are now the lifeblood of modern economies. From generative AI breakthroughs to massive infrastructure investments, the data economy is transforming industries, empowering businesses of all sizes, and reshaping regional dynamics.
Drawing on projections and analyses through 2026 and beyond, this article explores how data and AI serve as productivity engines, examines the scale of the data economy, highlights regional impacts, considers risks, and peers into future trends and wildcards.
Advancements in artificial intelligence, especially generative AI, have accelerated digital transformation across sectors. Estimates suggest that in the first half of 2025, nearly one-third of U.S. GDP growth was attributable to AI-related investments in data centers and computing infrastructure. AI-driven productivity gains are expected to deliver an extra one to two years of global growth over the next decade, with the U.S. potentially adding two to four years of expansion thanks to rapid diffusion of AI models and semiconductors.
Small and medium enterprises are harnessing AI tools to automate routine tasks, personalize customer interactions, and optimize supply chains. Subscriptions for AI-powered software are extending beyond North American tech hubs into Europe, Asia, and Latin America. As more firms adopt generative AI, digitalization deepens, and the ripple effects boost labor market flexibility, capital spending on AI, data centers and software R&D remains a key pillar of resilience amid geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. leads the charge with a data economy valued at $256.2 billion in 2026, encompassing $199.3 billion of active data and $60 billion of latent value. By 2030, this sector could nearly double to half a trillion dollars, unlocking opportunities in predictive analytics, smart manufacturing, and personalized medicine.
Meanwhile, the global data governance market is on track to soar from $4.44 billion today to $18.07 billion by 2032, reflecting surging investments in compliance, data quality, and security. Organizations recognize that information as a competitive differentiator demands robust frameworks to manage privacy, interoperability, and ethical AI deployment.
In Europe, digital trade and ICT-enabled services are expanding rapidly, supported by cross-border data flows and regional data hubs. Governments are crafting regulations to balance open economies with privacy protections, ensuring that data remains an engine of growth rather than a source of risk.
Despite its promise, the data economy faces significant headwinds. Intensifying U.S.–China rivalry has introduced multipolar volatility into global markets, with export controls and tariffs threatening to fragment technology ecosystems. Over-reliance on AI investments carries the risk of a sharp downturn if enthusiasm wanes, potentially tipping some economies into recession.
Labor market dynamics are also evolving. While AI-driven automation may reduce demand for certain routine roles, historic trends suggest that productivity-enhancing technologies ultimately support job creation in new domains. Unemployment rates are projected to stabilize around 4.5% in advanced economies, with policy support cushioning transitions.
Public spending on infrastructure and defense is acting as a buffer, offsetting trade headwinds. By investing in smart grid technology, renewable energy integration, and next-generation communication networks, governments are shoring up critical data infrastructure and reinforcing economic resilience.
Tech capital expenditure is poised to hit record highs, with AI R&D, computing hardware, and specialized facilities outpacing traditional baselines. Firms are experimenting with edge computing to reduce latency, while quantum research edges closer to practical applications.
Pending data releases from UNCTAD on FDI flows, digital economy metrics, and remittance trends will offer fresh insights in mid-2026. Additionally, emerging conversations around biodiversity data and plastics trade hint at novel applications of information ecosystems beyond pure technology sectors.
Scenarios for an AI-driven upside project U.S. GDP growth hitting 3% and global growth receiving a 0.3 percentage point boost in 2026. Success hinges on agile regulation, cross-border collaboration on data governance, and sustained investment in sustainable digital infrastructure.
In an era defined by uncertainty, one lesson stands out: harnessing data effectively is not just a technological challenge—it’s an economic imperative. Nations and organizations that cultivate robust data ecosystems, foster innovation, and manage risks thoughtfully will shape the contours of prosperity for decades to come.
Information as a global catalyst demands vision, cooperation, and commitment. By recognizing data’s central role in powering productivity, trade, and resilience, we can chart a path to inclusive, sustainable growth in the digital age.
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